In preparation of COP 21, countries have agreed to publicly outline their post-2020 climate action plans, known as their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Morocco and Ethiopia have recently submitted their INDCs and SLoCaT has issued a brief review to analyze the plans from the transport sector perspective.
The key observasations are as followed:
- Transport is one of the fastest growing sectors in Morocco with an annual increase of 6.2% between 1990 to 2012.
- In 2010, Morocco’s transport sector emitted about 11% of its total GHG emissions. In the Post-2020 plan, Morocco has committed for an unconditional target of 13% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Morocco has also pledged an additional 19% reduction (combined total of 32%) by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU) projected emissions.
- Under Morocco’s INDCs, the transport sector is specifically addressed with an intention to reduce energy consumption by 23% below BAU by 2030.
- IEA’s World Energy Outlook report states that Africa needs to reduce its transport energy and CO2 emissions by half i. e. from 4% in 1990-2013 to 2% in 2013 to 2030. Hence, 23% reduction in transport sector proposed by Morocco falls short of African transport target of 50% reduction in growth under the Bridge Scenario.
- Under its action plan, Morocco has proposed significant reduction of fossil fuel subsidies and increasing the use of natural gas.
- Morocco has also proposed to develop a national plan to combat short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), with support from the Climate and Clean Air Coalition. With Transport sector being a significant contributor to Black carbon emissions (about 19% globally ), Morocco may propose additional actions on reducing diesel consumption in transport sector.
- In 2010, Ethiopia’s transport sector emitted about 3% of its total national GHG emissions. In the Post-2020 plan, Ethiopia has committed for a conditional target of 64% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario.
- Under the national target, transport sector share in total mitigation is about 3.9% of targeted emission reduction of 255 Mt CO2e. This could be a significant reduction for transport sector as CO2 emissions increased at 5.8% annually between 1990 to 2012.
- Ethiopia has not revealed its transport sector action plan to undertake this mitigation. However, it has indicated that the entire full and effective implementation of Green Economy Strategy for national mitigation would entail an estimated expenditure of more than USD 150 billion by 2030.
Full text of the review can be downloaded here